国家高新区能否提升城市创新水平?

文章基于2003年至2016年我国215个城市面板数据，运用双重差分模型、空间双重差分模型和分位数回归模型等方法，实证检验了国家高新区对城市创新水平的影响及其空间异质性特征。研究结果表明，国家高新区建设显著提升了城市创新水平，并且高新区设立带动的城市投资集聚是推动城市创新水平提升的重要原因。空间双重差分结果表明，国家高新区对城市创新水平的提升作用并非源于其对周边城市创新资源的掠夺，相反高新区设立对周边城市和省内城市均产生了显著的溢出效应，提升了本省城市和周边外省城市创新水平。此外，国家高新区对城市创新水平的影响具有空间异质性特征，在省会城市、直辖市和副省级城市，高新区对城市创新水平的影响并不显著，而能够显著提升一般地级市创新水平；随着城市创新水平的提升，高新区建设对城市创新水平的促进作用呈现出先增强、后减弱直至不再显著的非对称"倒V型"变化特征。但是研究也发现，国家高新区对城市创新水平影响的区位异质性并不显著，高新区对东部地区和中西部地区城市创新水平提升均具有显著的促进作用。     

社会主义核心价值观融入高职"思政"课堂研究综述

本文全面梳理了当前国内学者对社会主义核心价值观培育融入高职院校思政课堂研究的概貌,为研究高职院校"思政"课教学培育和践行核心价值观的"落细、落小、落实"打下基础.     

A Multicriteria Approach for Modeling Small Enterprise Credit Rating: Evidence from China

ABSTRACT

As the engine of China’s economy, small enterprises have been the central to the country’s economic development. However, given the characteristics of the small enterprises loan (i.e., short borrowing period, large volume, small amount and incomplete information), it is extremely challenging for financial institutions to assess their creditworthiness. Thus, it seriously delays and restricts the financing access for small enterprises. In an attempt to relieve the financing difficulty of small enterprises, this article makes use of 687 small wholesale and retail enterprises in a regional commercial bank in China, to establish a credit rating indicator system composed of 17 indicators by using both partial correlation analysis and probit regression. It then utilizes TOPSIS together with fuzzy C-means to score the credit ratings of our sample of small enterprises. With the dual test of default discrimination and ROC curve, the prediction accuracy of the established indicator system has reached 80.10% and 0.917, respectively, indicating the robustness and validity of our credit rating system.     

C-RAN网络中基于稀疏性的预测矩阵求解算法

在C-RAN（Centralized,Cooperative,Cloud Radio Access Network）无线网络基于转移矩阵的负载预测方法中，虽然该预测矩阵具有稀疏特性，但是现有的技术缺乏对稀疏特性加以利用，从而造成计算复杂。针对此问题，提出了一种基于稀疏性的预测矩阵求解算法。该算法对网络状态转移矩阵进行分块迭代，每次等分4块，并分别定义4块矩阵的偏移量。当属于同一行的块矩阵的偏移量有一个是零矩阵时，直接得出所求矩阵对应块的元素全部为零，然后进行下一次迭代；当属于同一行的块矩阵偏移量都不为零矩阵时，通过对矩阵方程组变形处理，转换成迭代格式，然后分块处理。最后，结合仿真定量分析稀疏矩阵稀疏度的临界值问题，给出了稀疏度与计算量之间的关系，并证明了其合理性。仿真结果表明，所提算法能够在不影响预测准确度前提下，降低复杂度。     

How do successful scholars get their best research ideas? An exploration

We interview 24 marketing professors to ask how they got the ideas for 64 of their papers. More than three-quarters of the papers were inspired by holes in the literature, by a “stylized fact” that the current literature cannot explain, or by an interaction with a manager. The rest fall into several smaller categories that to a large extent can be seen as special cases of the three big ones. We describe how papers from each of the three big categories help move the literature forward. We also illustrate the range of situations contained in each category by way of several examples. Among the authors we interview, most do not use a single source. As these authors become more senior, managerial contacts play an increasing role, while the balance between literature and stylized facts appears to be unchanged.

     

Navigating the purchasing power gap in new product development in multinational corporations

Multinational corporations (MNCs) face a significant purchasing power gap of customers between developed and emerging economies. In R&D intensive industries making physical products, MNCs can benefit from economies of scale. Therefore, managers strive to achieve a product standardization–adaptation (S‐A) balance when navigating the purchasing power gap. Through focusing on five MNCs headquartered in developed countries, I examined how MNCs can achieve such a balance through new product development (NPD). I found that (1) an S‐A balance can be achieved through three NPD strategies (product simplification, product retaining, and reverse innovation); (2) managers need to take into account five key factors when choosing NPD strategies (product complexity, product modularity, brand strategy, position in local competition, and internal technical standards); and (3) the NPD strategies can be implemented through structural separation, temporal separation, and a shared value. This research reveals the complexity of achieving an S‐A balance when managers navigate the purchasing power gap in NPD. Different NPD strategies have certain advantages and shortcomings. High product complexity and product modularity can serve as favorable conditions for a product simplification strategy. A brand strategy of leading‐edge technologies can serve as an adverse condition for a product retaining strategy. Strong local competitors in emerging markets can be a motivation for a reverse innovation strategy, while stringent internal standards for safety can be an adverse condition. This research also reveals the nuances of implementation of NPD strategies in terms of managing innovation and refinement activities. MNCs may need temporal separation when adopting both downhill and uphill NPD strategies.     

Big data driven cycle time parallel prediction for production planning in wafer manufacturing

Cycle time forecasting (CTF) is one of the most crucial issues for production planning to keep high delivery reliability in semiconductor wafer fabrication systems (SWFS). This paper proposes a novel data-intensive cycle time (CT) prediction system with parallel computing to rapidly forecast the CT of wafer lots with large datasets. First, a density peak based radial basis function network (DP-RBFN) is designed to forecast the CT with the diverse and agglomerative CT data. Second, the network learning method based on a clustering technique is proposed to determine the density peak. Third, a parallel computing approach for network training is proposed in order to speed up the training process with large scaled CT data. Finally, an experiment with respect to SWFS is presented, which demonstrates that the proposed CTF system can not only speed up the training process of the model but also outperform the radial basis function network, the back-propagation-network and multivariate regression methodology based CTF methods in terms of the mean absolute deviation and standard deviation.     

Why has China’s vertical specialization declined?

Vertical specialization (VS) is quantified by the VS share, which measures the average import content per dollar of exports. A characteristic of China’s export trade is its strong dependence on assembly and processing activities. To take proper account of this, China’s VS shares should explicitly distinguish processing export production from other production. We estimate China’s annual VS shares from 2000 to 2012—the latest year for which a special input–output table is available that makes such an explicit distinction. We find that VS shares increased from 2000 to 2004 and subsequently started to decrease. To explore why it has declined, we introduce a new structural decomposition approach. We find that the decrease of the VS share appears to have been driven mainly by the substitution of imported intermediates by domestic products. This occurred in particular in the production of exports, which implies an upgrading of China’s position in global value chains.     

粮食与经济重心迁移路径及空间耦合关系分析*——以湖北省粮食主产县为例

[目的]我国的粮食安全问题一直备受关注,作为粮食安全重要保障的粮食主产区近年来却面临着粮食生产与经济发展协调性、可持续性下降的困扰。文章以湖北省46个粮食主产县为研究区,对其粮食生产与经济发展的耦合协调状况进行研究,以期为地方政府粮食安全政策制定提供参考。[方法]以研究区粮食产量、地区生产总值、行政区划图层为数据源,构建重心模型和空间耦合模型,对粮食主产县2006—2015年间粮食重心和经济重心迁移路径、粮食生产与经济发展耦合协调状况进行分析。[结果](1)研究期间粮食主产县的粮食重心和经济重心整体上皆向西北方向转移,经济重心始终位于粮食重心东南部,经济重心的移动幅度大于粮食重心,但经济重心的移动方向更稳定。研究区北部的粮食生产地位高于南部,南部的经济地位则高于北部,粮食生产的稳定性相对低于经济发展。(2)两重心整体上虽均向西北方向转移,但具体移动方向存在较大差异,两者空间重叠性整体下降,变动一致性减弱,空间耦合性变差。(3)粮食生产与经济发展空间一致性地域分异特征明显,相较于2006年,2015年粮食经济整体协调性进一步减弱,粮食生产与经济发展日趋分散。[结论]建立重心模型和空间耦合模型对粮食生产与经济发展耦合协调状况进行研究是有效可行的,为推动粮食生产与经济发展协调稳步发展决策提供一定的参考。     

Good jump,bad jump,and option valuation

I develop a new class of closed‐form option pricing models that incorporate variance risk premium and symmetric or asymmetric double exponential jump diffusion. These models decompose the jump component into upward and downward jumps using two independent exponential distributions and thus capture the impact of good and bad news on asset returns and option prices. The empirical results show that the model with an asymmetric double exponential jump diffusion improves the fit on Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF returns and options and provides relatively better in‐ and out‐of‐sample pricing performance.